Estimating drop chances with Bayesian statistics

In many games, different items or events have an associated chance to appear. Often these chances are unknown to the players. In this post, we will try to estimate the chance of getting a Mysterious Stranger in Hearthstone Mercenaries from...

Perfect Amalgadon, exact chances

In Hearthstone battlegrounds as of patch 18.6.1 the Amalgadon card have the following effect: Battlecry: For each different minion type you have among other minions, Adapt randomly. When playing Amalgadon the number of adapts will be in the range between...